TD #6

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

Dean The Sequel

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

Yet More Rank Stupidity

It had to be coming.

No one storm says anything about climate change; but nevertheless, climate change may affect weather in the aggregate. ... bearing in mind the scientific expectation that global warming ought to intensify the average hurricane (by how much remains hotly disputed). How does Dean fit into that ongoing scientific argument? Well, first of all, Dean now takes its rank among the top ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes. If you look at that list you’ll see that six of the strongest (Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Mitch, Dean, and Ivan) have been in the past ten years. That’s not the kind of statistic that’s easy to overlook. According to these data we are getting stronger storms in the Atlantic basin now than we ever have before.

Bullshit. Complete intellectually dishonest bullshit.

The truth is we only have complete data on intensity from the late 1960's. For example, look at the data for 1960. Of the seven tropical storms that season only three have recorded pressure readings, and one of those seems suspect to me. (Category 5 hurricane Ethel only had a pressure of 981mb?)

Or check out 1950, where only three of 13 storms have pressure readings. This includes no pressure reading on the massive category 5 storm Dog.




How do we know this wasn't one of the strongest storms ever? We don't. Our data isn't good enough.

Unfortunately, this type of unscientific demagoguery is par for the course with the GW hysteria crowd.

Cat 5 Dean Zeroes In On Yucatan

1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS
FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

Coastal flooding could be horrendous, and flimsy construction in the poorer areas of the Yucatan will be severely hit. Good luck to all our friends in Mexico. Stay safe.

Some Good News On Dean

Dean is a little less intense today.

1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.

When the eye of a hurricane increases in size it can often indicate a lessening of strength, at least in the short term. Dean has been a very compact, tightly wound storm up until now.

It should be noted that the official statement differs from the "discussion" statement I quoted above:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

This makes sense as you never want people to let up their guard, especially as the storm is about to slam into a populated area.

Jamaica Prepares For Dean

From the Jamaica Observer: Dean on course

THE island's emergency response agencies were yesterday put on full alert as the country braced for what is likely to be a direct hit from Hurricane Dean.

Dean, which yesterday morning pounded the Eastern Caribbean islands of Martinique, Dominica and St Lucia, last night strengthened to a category four hurricane and was on a path that would take it over Jamaica by early tomorrow.

At 8:00 last night, Dean, packing winds of 135 miles per hour, (mph) was approximately 800 miles east-southeast of Kingston, the Jamaican capital. The hurricane was moving towards the west at a slow 19 mph, and was forecast to continue on that course today, with a decrease in forward speed. However, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said the weather system was likely to strengthen as it moved closer to Jamaica.

In preparation for Dean, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, following a three-hour meeting with the National Disaster Committee yesterday, said police officers, firefighters and prison warders who were on leave were asked to report for duty, in an effort to reinforce the island's security and rescue operations in preparation for the impending natural disaster.

"I call on everyone to begin to put in place the necessary safety precautions as we prepare for Hurricane Dean," she said at a press briefing at Jamaica House after meeting with the committee.

She also called on shelter managers across the island to be on alert and to make themselves available to operate the emergency care centres.

Simpson Miller said the island's emergency response agencies, including the National Works Agency, Jamaica Fire Brigade, Jamaica Defence Force and the Jamaica Constabulary Force, were prepared to deal with all eventualities occasioned by Hurricane Dean.

"All the government agencies are prepared and all (of them) have indicated that they are more prepared than they were last year," the prime minister told reporters.

At the same time, the director general of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), Ronald Jackson, told journalists that the agency had put all the necessary arrangements in place to deal with the hurricane. According to Jackson, all parish disaster committees had been activated and community assistance groups and distress registration centres were functional.

Jackson said, too, that the ODPEM's overseas partners had been alerted and were ready to help the island in the aftermath of Hurricane Dean.

"No country alone will be able to handle a category four or five hurricane (so) we have put in place external mechanisms," he said, adding that if Dean were below category three, the agency "might very well be able to deal with it" on its own.

Jackson said the agency would be doing everything possible to ensure that residents in flood-prone areas leave their homes and seek refuge in the assigned shelters.

The Jamaica Urban Transit Corporation (JUTC) has dedicated 50 buses to this effort.

With storms this size you sometimes don't know exactly what you are going to get. Dean has had a relatively small area of hurricane force winds to this point so it wouldn't take a huge jog to the north or south to spare Jamaica the worst. However, a direct hit seems likeliest right now.

Good luck to all in Jamaica.

Dean Update

1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924
MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN
WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE
IT REACHES YUCATAN.

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

Dean Update: Now A Cat 4

1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
MB...27.67 INCHES.

Dean Update: Now A Cat 3

500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

Dean Jamaica Bound?

Dean Now A Hurricane

1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

Dean Update

1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

And the Wind Speed Forecast:

Erin

Here is Erin's info:

100 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...ERIN HEADING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER COULD BE REFORMING A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH...WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS
CONFIRMED...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED
NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

I feel sorry for the folks in Texas because the last thing they need is more rain.

Dean

I'm a little late on this, but I thought Tropical Depression 4 would turn into Tropical Storm Dean so I waited. Dean is the first classic African wave storm to develop It certainly won't be the last.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

Dean should reach hurricane strength in a day or two. The storm track will be interesting to see. Cuba could be impacted greatly.

Meanwhile TD #5 has popped up in the Gulf. Should just make tropical storm strength before hitting Texas.

Eastern Pacific Update

This is a report card on The Typhoon Times forecast for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. To date we have had 9 total storms with two hurricanes (including Flossie which just became a minimal hurricane.)

I predicted 21 named storms in the Eastern Pacific with 8 of those storms becoming hurricanes.

Almost half-way there, and there is still quite some time to go.

Moving The Goalpost, Sort Of

Seem like the folks at the NOAA are getting a little antsy about the quiet Caribbean....but only a little: Forecasters: Fewer hurricanes for '07

Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.

Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.

Was this "revision" really necessary? If you forecast 17 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes in May, and we only get 16 and 9 isn't that still a successful forecast? I'd say damn successful.

I'm gonna stick to my prediction (made in April) of 19 and 8. To change now would be a little gutless.

TS Chantal (2007) In Historical Perspective

I decided to look at the other storms in the storm record that had a similar genesis point to tropical storm Chantal since 1930. It proves very interesting as it further reinforces the idea that serious undercounting of North Atlantic tropical storm in the pre-satellite era is endemic. I decided to look at all storms that had their genesis in the box bordered by the lines, 40 degrees north, 30 degrees north, 60 degrees west, and 70 degrees west (roughly this box brackets the island of Bermuda.) I've broken it down by decade below:

1930's:

1938, Tropical Storm #6, 40kts

1940's:

1942, Hurricane #3, 94kts
1942, Tropical Storm #5, 45kts
1942, Tropical Storm #6, 45kts
1943, Tropical Storm #7, 50kts

1950's:

1957, Hurricane Frieda, 70kts

1960's

1964, Tropical Storm, 45kts

1970's

1971, Hurricane #2, 70kts
1972, Hurricane Betty, 90kts
1973, Hurricane Fran, 70kts
1974, Subtropical #3, 45kts
1976, Hurricane Candice, 80kts

1980's

1981, Tropical Storm Bret, 60kts
1981, Tropical Storm Condy, 50kts
1983, Hurricane Chantal, 65kts
1984, Subtropical #1, 50kts
1984 Tropical Storm Cesar, 50 kts

1990's

1997, Hurricane Bill, 65kts
1998, Hurricane Karl, 90kts

2000's

2001, Hurricane Karen, 70kts
2003, Tropical Storm Ana, 45kts
2004, Tropical Storm Nicole, 45kts
2007, Tropical Storm Chantal, 45kts

Average number of storms per year in each decade:

Pre-satellite era

1930's: 0.1
1940's: 0.4
1950's: 0.1
1960's: 0.1

Satellite era:

1970's: 0.5
1980's: 0.6
1990's: 0.2
2000's: 0.5

For entire pre-satellite era 1930-1969: 0.175
For entire satellite era 1970-2007: 0.447

It should also be noted that four of the seven total storms found in the pre-satellite era were found at a time when the U.S. military had a submarine and air presence at Bermuda engaged in active wartime patrolling during the Second World War.