tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-82282266635151816702024-03-12T18:53:37.944-07:00The Typhoon TimesThe tiniest of blogs takes on the mightiest of storms.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-37508076735275171612008-05-06T16:15:00.001-07:002008-05-06T16:23:06.896-07:00Report Card: Typhoon Times 2007 ForecastsSo how did I do in 2007? (I'm sure the whole world is wanting to know!) Well, not too bad. In some ways worse than the Colorado State forecast, in some ways better.<br /><br />The data (<a href="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007H/index.html">Atlantic</a> & <a href="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2007/index.html">East Pacific</a>):<br /><br />Tropical Storms (Atlantic):<br /><br />Typhoon Times: 19<br />Colorado State: 17<br />Actual: 17<br /><br />Hurricanes (Atlantic):<br /><br />Typhoon Times: 8<br />Colorado State: 9<br />Actual: 5<br /><br />Tropical Storms (East Pacific):<br /><br />Typhoon Times: 21<br />Actual: 19<br /><br />Hurricanes (East Pacific):<br /><br />Typhoon Times: 8<br />Actual: 4<br /><br />Could hae been worse, could have been better. I'd give myself a solid "C".Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-78650398776279368192007-09-08T12:29:00.001-07:002007-09-08T12:29:52.056-07:00Gabrielle<blockquote>AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE<br />WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST OR ABOUT<br />240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.<br /><br />THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST<br />FEW HOURS BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9<br />MPH...14 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT<br />DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON<br />THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH<br />CAROLINA TOMORROW...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE<br />COAST TONIGHT.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS<br />GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.<br /><br />WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH<br />FROM THE CENTER.<br /><br />THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE<br />RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.</blockquote>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-43302575521602884542007-09-02T09:07:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:11.280-08:00Henriette (Eastern Pacific)<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQWYraYVgBF6THq0O6pHpAy_P8YPiQ9zofYmMormJxTx4qSGvXhTjuYXgqma_atB9G3VNB_CMNgI-R5Ui2IE1Zbc17D24ikWp-2Ylq2npkQI1p-tsMwrGuTqnTLxqEXs14l1u-XM71nYPp/s1600-h/henriette"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQWYraYVgBF6THq0O6pHpAy_P8YPiQ9zofYmMormJxTx4qSGvXhTjuYXgqma_atB9G3VNB_CMNgI-R5Ui2IE1Zbc17D24ikWp-2Ylq2npkQI1p-tsMwrGuTqnTLxqEXs14l1u-XM71nYPp/s400/henriette" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5105639612601753762" /></a><br />AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS<br />LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125<br />MILES...200 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 395<br />MILES...640 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.<br /><br />HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR<br />...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. <br />THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE AWAY FROM THE<br />MAINLAND OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS<br />AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.<br /><br />TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM<br />FROM THE CENTER.<br /><br />ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-55988607086368433712007-09-02T08:59:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:11.715-08:00Felix: Update #1<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjEaFAIngdG1PlK7CbUGZzKdM38wYTDiidZQR2KmTzUlAvPjULEcFziCSPlyOxzrvMW2X3YbIq6JR0BrrMCP07bzOb8l5mLpk3038cRzSbwjE6HB24gs6GZjZLntC38Cwbk6TBRFLRPNqg/s1600-h/felix+2"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjEaFAIngdG1PlK7CbUGZzKdM38wYTDiidZQR2KmTzUlAvPjULEcFziCSPlyOxzrvMW2X3YbIq6JR0BrrMCP07bzOb8l5mLpk3038cRzSbwjE6HB24gs6GZjZLntC38Cwbk6TBRFLRPNqg/s400/felix+2" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5105637593967124626" /></a><br />AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED<br />NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...<br />75 KM...NORTH OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...SOUTHEAST OF<br />KINGSTON JAMAICA.<br /><br />FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...<br />AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24<br />HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING<br />AWAY FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE<br />CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON<br />SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELIX COULD BECOME A MAJOR<br />HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY.<br /><br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM<br />THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115<br />MILES...185 KM.<br /><br />ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-68441761675278852632007-09-01T10:00:00.001-07:002007-09-01T10:00:58.582-07:00Felix<blockquote>AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS<br />LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 455<br />MILES...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT<br />600 MILES...965 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN<br />REPUBLIC.<br /><br />FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS<br />GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br />ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE<br />ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY<br />MORNING.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100<br />KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON<br />SUNDAY.<br /><br />TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM<br />FROM THE CENTER.<br /><br />THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE<br />HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.</blockquote>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-21028544114656194732007-08-31T14:14:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:11.963-08:00TD #6<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioTV4oTen7uVr6_7KwC-WfX4FOQ5ypYH9RitrxXif3MMlTt6B-r0v-Vb6lUX-3A0t67x_LMEIbe2wAiGlbuumhaavUV-jcK-ZdpREKiuQYsYp1Mh5EiZXXIznZWv5FCbtsIf7i2GuJaZTd/s1600-h/td+6a"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioTV4oTen7uVr6_7KwC-WfX4FOQ5ypYH9RitrxXif3MMlTt6B-r0v-Vb6lUX-3A0t67x_LMEIbe2wAiGlbuumhaavUV-jcK-ZdpREKiuQYsYp1Mh5EiZXXIznZWv5FCbtsIf7i2GuJaZTd/s400/td+6a" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5104977113896345730" /></a><br /><br /><blockquote>AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL<br />DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE<br />58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE<br />WINDWARD ISLANDS.<br /><br />THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS<br />GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON<br />THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD<br />ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. <br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.<br /><br />THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND<br />AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.</blockquote><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj55Pvm6V3vG47EA96iEgwNY03ZJcQi-UW-PYIsl12BL3SO_lTaM6N2KwNqsi9IXFS8p0xrgrYIxnTZU65KQlbiptUCVhlGboLmUVBmAy39nK9-QZ3P1LbuOtWgJZSRA67DLrIPgY9SP8BS/s1600-h/td+6"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj55Pvm6V3vG47EA96iEgwNY03ZJcQi-UW-PYIsl12BL3SO_lTaM6N2KwNqsi9IXFS8p0xrgrYIxnTZU65KQlbiptUCVhlGboLmUVBmAy39nK9-QZ3P1LbuOtWgJZSRA67DLrIPgY9SP8BS/s400/td+6" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5104976723054321778" /></a>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-25164562627000553942007-08-22T08:23:00.000-07:002007-08-22T08:24:30.007-07:00Dean The Sequel<blockquote>MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100<br />MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO<br />HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF<br />ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.<br /><br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM<br />THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200<br />MILES...325 KM.<br /><br />THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE<br />UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.</blockquote>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-86951613661194049792007-08-21T13:13:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:11.977-08:00Yet More Rank StupidityIt <a href="http://www.thedailygreen.com/2007/08/21/hurricane-dean-1-of-10-most-intense-atlantic-hurricanes-ever/5533/">had to be coming</a>.<br /><br /><blockquote><span style="color:#333333;">No one storm says anything about climate change; but nevertheless, climate change may affect weather in the aggregate. ... bearing in mind the scientific expectation that global warming ought to intensify the average hurricane (by how much remains hotly disputed). How does Dean fit into that ongoing scientific argument? Well, first of all, Dean now takes its rank among the top ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes. If you look at that list you’ll see that six of the strongest (Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Mitch, Dean, and Ivan) have been in the past ten years. That’s not the kind of statistic that’s easy to overlook. According to these data we are getting stronger storms in the Atlantic basin now than we ever have before.</span></blockquote><br /><br />Bullshit. Complete intellectually dishonest bullshit.<br /><br />The truth is we only have complete data on intensity from the late 1960's. For example, look at the <a href="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1960/index.html">data for 1960</a>. Of the seven tropical storms that season only three have recorded pressure readings, and one of those seems suspect to me. (Category 5 hurricane Ethel only had a pressure of 981mb?)<br /><br />Or <a href="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/index.html">check out 1950</a>, where only three of 13 storms have pressure readings. This includes no pressure reading on the massive category 5 storm Dog.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYK_5bhqBZaD69avoPu1jxDg9vXcIKDalfrK02_hRtNTsYuX0OuJGcwGKhNGKgIKPHKqThANianuxQUWWtkxEDHmaB-9tXIU6ie3EPKoCbmOUfMEYDt6_COfKppFgHlAHVl7ARX-Enqzg/s1600-h/dog"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5101217458439217122" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYK_5bhqBZaD69avoPu1jxDg9vXcIKDalfrK02_hRtNTsYuX0OuJGcwGKhNGKgIKPHKqThANianuxQUWWtkxEDHmaB-9tXIU6ie3EPKoCbmOUfMEYDt6_COfKppFgHlAHVl7ARX-Enqzg/s400/dog" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />How do we know this wasn't one of the strongest storms ever? We don't. Our data isn't good enough.<br /><br />Unfortunately, this type of unscientific demagoguery is par for the course with the GW hysteria crowd.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-8650292461136242522007-08-20T20:07:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:12.169-08:00Cat 5 Dean Zeroes In On Yucatan<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghLedKYEJtuGVgUk045QAjN5Q8prQ-QuU2Dbtzi4mEV3kDf6KxS8pGmKUX5PPEmQHnNAgFriPNBfP2nct7AwkUBjPwk9rZpd3WsGS-p_r_Syb3c84r2UZBvVhC37hwOt734fw_9Z6e2IiF/s1600-h/Dean+8-20"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghLedKYEJtuGVgUk045QAjN5Q8prQ-QuU2Dbtzi4mEV3kDf6KxS8pGmKUX5PPEmQHnNAgFriPNBfP2nct7AwkUBjPwk9rZpd3WsGS-p_r_Syb3c84r2UZBvVhC37hwOt734fw_9Z6e2IiF/s400/Dean+8-20" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5100986487982940114" /></a><br /><blockquote>1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007<br /><br />...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS<br />FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...<br /><br />...<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE<br />ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH<br />IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN<br />PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE<br />YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH<br />THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM<br />THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175<br />MILES...280 KM.<br /><br />THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE<br />RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.<br /><br />DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES<br />OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF<br />MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM<br />AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE<br />LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.<br /><br />STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS<br />POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG<br />THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.</blockquote><br />Coastal flooding could be horrendous, and flimsy construction in the poorer areas of the Yucatan will be severely hit. Good luck to all our friends in Mexico. Stay safe.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-37628505390214164382007-08-19T10:12:00.000-07:002007-08-19T10:20:18.197-07:00Some Good News On DeanDean is a <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/191459.shtml?">little less intense today</a>.<br /><br /><blockquote>1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007<br /><br />THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF<br />142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT<br />ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY<br />RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12<br />HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL<br />STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF<br />THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN<br />APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM<br />WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.</blockquote><br /><br />When the eye of a hurricane increases in size it can often indicate a lessening of strength, at least in the short term. Dean has been a very compact, tightly wound storm up until now. <br /><br />It should be noted that the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/191443.shtml?">official statement</a> differs from the "discussion" statement I quoted above:<br /><br /><blockquote>MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON<br />SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND<br />ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.</blockquote><br /><br />This makes sense as you never want people to let up their guard, especially as the storm is about to slam into a populated area.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-52819981394673961122007-08-18T11:14:00.000-07:002007-08-18T11:20:53.967-07:00Jamaica Prepares For DeanFrom the Jamaica Observer: <a href="http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20070817T230000-0500_126421_OBS_DEAN_ON_COURSE.asp">Dean on course</a><br /><br /><blockquote>THE island's emergency response agencies were yesterday put on full alert as the country braced for what is likely to be a direct hit from Hurricane Dean.<br /><br />Dean, which yesterday morning pounded the Eastern Caribbean islands of Martinique, Dominica and St Lucia, last night strengthened to a category four hurricane and was on a path that would take it over Jamaica by early tomorrow.<br /><br />At 8:00 last night, Dean, packing winds of 135 miles per hour, (mph) was approximately 800 miles east-southeast of Kingston, the Jamaican capital. The hurricane was moving towards the west at a slow 19 mph, and was forecast to continue on that course today, with a decrease in forward speed. However, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said the weather system was likely to strengthen as it moved closer to Jamaica.<br /><br />In preparation for Dean, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, following a three-hour meeting with the National Disaster Committee yesterday, said police officers, firefighters and prison warders who were on leave were asked to report for duty, in an effort to reinforce the island's security and rescue operations in preparation for the impending natural disaster.<br /><br />"I call on everyone to begin to put in place the necessary safety precautions as we prepare for Hurricane Dean," she said at a press briefing at Jamaica House after meeting with the committee.<br /><br />She also called on shelter managers across the island to be on alert and to make themselves available to operate the emergency care centres.<br /><br />Simpson Miller said the island's emergency response agencies, including the National Works Agency, Jamaica Fire Brigade, Jamaica Defence Force and the Jamaica Constabulary Force, were prepared to deal with all eventualities occasioned by Hurricane Dean.<br /><br />"All the government agencies are prepared and all (of them) have indicated that they are more prepared than they were last year," the prime minister told reporters.<br /><br />At the same time, the director general of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), Ronald Jackson, told journalists that the agency had put all the necessary arrangements in place to deal with the hurricane. According to Jackson, all parish disaster committees had been activated and community assistance groups and distress registration centres were functional. <br /><br />Jackson said, too, that the ODPEM's overseas partners had been alerted and were ready to help the island in the aftermath of Hurricane Dean.<br /><br />"No country alone will be able to handle a category four or five hurricane (so) we have put in place external mechanisms," he said, adding that if Dean were below category three, the agency "might very well be able to deal with it" on its own.<br /><br />Jackson said the agency would be doing everything possible to ensure that residents in flood-prone areas leave their homes and seek refuge in the assigned shelters.<br /><br />The Jamaica Urban Transit Corporation (JUTC) has dedicated 50 buses to this effort.</blockquote><br />With storms this size you sometimes don't know exactly what you are going to get. Dean has had a relatively small area of hurricane force winds to this point so it wouldn't take a huge jog to the north or south to spare Jamaica the worst. However, a direct hit seems likeliest right now.<br /><br />Good luck to all in Jamaica.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-42924865268708118272007-08-18T11:05:00.001-07:002008-12-09T09:24:12.567-08:00Dean Update<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguQFC4pMAuy_pw_oQ-tx-l7w_BEtFzi1QJQStUaUjkR9si-dfWN-wz_E7bfcfUfKWVcVwcbh1904u3uvEJ5gVduiuyl3afIe5G2aIv0O6RE82xA398Gc6_0ZL8yT6AAgbzIOs07a1To3SU/s1600-h/dean+8-18"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguQFC4pMAuy_pw_oQ-tx-l7w_BEtFzi1QJQStUaUjkR9si-dfWN-wz_E7bfcfUfKWVcVwcbh1904u3uvEJ5gVduiuyl3afIe5G2aIv0O6RE82xA398Gc6_0ZL8yT6AAgbzIOs07a1To3SU/s400/dean+8-18" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5100103537196162994" /></a><br /><blockquote>1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007<br /><br />AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND<br />THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY<br />REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924<br />MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN<br />WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS<br />RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK<br />INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN<br />BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT<br />IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE<br />IT REACHES YUCATAN.<br /><br />THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE<br />WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN<br />ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE<br />WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.<br />THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST<br />TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE<br />CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS<br />WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO<br />THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.</blockquote>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-23968698447759882882007-08-17T21:06:00.000-07:002007-08-17T21:09:15.506-07:00Dean Update: Now A Cat 4<blockquote>1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007<br /><br />...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...<br /><br />AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN<br />PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO<br />PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM<br />PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.<br /><br />AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS<br />DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM<br />WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE<br />LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST<br />KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.<br /><br />A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE<br />DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN<br />REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE<br />CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24<br />HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED<br />TO COMPLETION.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN<br />ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS<br />WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF<br />THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.<br /><br />A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE<br />EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A<br />HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN<br />THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE<br />PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A<br />TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE<br />POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.<br /><br />INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING<br />WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF<br />MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.<br /><br />FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE<br />INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED<br />BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.<br /><br />AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED<br />NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...<br />1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...<br />390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.<br /><br />DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS<br />GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. <br />ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH<br />OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY<br />SATURDAY.<br /><br />DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT<br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON<br />HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING<br />THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM<br />THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205<br />MILES...335 KM.<br /><br />THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937<br />MB...27.67 INCHES.</blockquote>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-44972487500096833292007-08-17T14:54:00.000-07:002007-08-17T14:55:59.077-07:00Dean Update: Now A Cat 3500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007<br /><br />...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN<br />SEA... <br /><br />A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS<br />DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER<br />TONIGHT.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN<br />ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING<br />ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST<br />KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE<br />WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF<br />THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN<br />REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO<br />BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR<br />HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.<br /><br />AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A<br />HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT<br />HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY<br />WITHIN 36 HOURS.<br /><br />AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A<br />TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE<br />PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL<br />STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY<br />WITHIN 36 HOURS.<br /><br />AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND<br />DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.<br /><br />AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.<br />LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.<br /><br />INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING<br />THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.<br /><br />FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE<br />INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED<br />BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.<br /><br />AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED<br />NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...<br />1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...<br />415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.<br /><br />DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS<br />MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL<br />DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE<br />HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE<br />DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. <br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON<br />SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br />ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.<br /><br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM<br />THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185<br />MILES...295 KM.<br /><br />ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-75130317969509440482007-08-17T08:28:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:12.884-08:00Dean Jamaica Bound?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJyddvC9pg2h04zbXAVL8SL0hk6MbgSl_w6ckOWIU4vZTRZyJy409MZ0rVbr6CJFEncyaBEXt37VDiqQC2Mti3FHKjTTKvVRXF57Peg9zsxIn4t1Yduo9x8P_oLxJkJQiczQ38o7Xa9ln3/s1600-h/Dean+8-17"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJyddvC9pg2h04zbXAVL8SL0hk6MbgSl_w6ckOWIU4vZTRZyJy409MZ0rVbr6CJFEncyaBEXt37VDiqQC2Mti3FHKjTTKvVRXF57Peg9zsxIn4t1Yduo9x8P_oLxJkJQiczQ38o7Xa9ln3/s400/Dean+8-17" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5099692264012799890" /></a>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-39591947909172553682007-08-16T08:51:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:13.062-08:00Dean Now A Hurricane<blockquote>1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007<br /><br />...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...<br /><br />A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA<br />AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS<br />ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br />PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO<br />COMPLETION.<br /><br />A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...<br />GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT<br />HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY<br />WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A<br />HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR<br />MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.<br /><br />AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS<br />UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR<br />THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND<br />BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.<br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE<br />EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A<br />TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.<br /><br />AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED<br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR<br />SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN<br />HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS<br />DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM<br />CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36<br />HOURS.<br /><br />ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER<br />TODAY.<br /><br />INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN<br />ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS<br />OF DEAN.<br /><br />FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR<br />PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.<br /><br />AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED<br />NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...<br />565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF<br />MARTINIQUE.<br /><br />DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS<br />MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF<br />DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON<br />SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER<br />ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE<br />NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL<br />INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.<br /><br />HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM<br />THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM<br />FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE<br />CENTER.<br /><br />THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.</blockquote><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFaUkaFdQhrZIG99nXh3dVdulf521T9_WboA86CfHFjJSlg9zO-nxX4Vq6AitAbC_qF-UT2eq87r9SkibhUTsFlsIfvxxJchYyuAc6iDF9HC42Sqj6hG7Cwe0e6iBPk-bHIXQ0MsoMOcy/s1600-h/Dean+8-16"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFaUkaFdQhrZIG99nXh3dVdulf521T9_WboA86CfHFjJSlg9zO-nxX4Vq6AitAbC_qF-UT2eq87r9SkibhUTsFlsIfvxxJchYyuAc6iDF9HC42Sqj6hG7Cwe0e6iBPk-bHIXQ0MsoMOcy/s400/Dean+8-16" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5099327110188261250" /></a>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-30143973409968663742007-08-15T11:00:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:14.162-08:00Dean Update<blockquote>1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007<br /><br />...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF<br />DEAN.<br /><br />FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR<br />PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.<br /><br />AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS<br />LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045<br />MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.<br /><br />DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS<br />MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND<br />DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.<br /><br />DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE<br />WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.<br /><br />THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.</blockquote><br /><br />And the Wind Speed Forecast:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGBz-YchC_1mir5wUg1q7e6mMcii1k8gqGaBy8d45F39obtrS_1NZEHgy8dw49tAk_sowXrA8G4oWO5Kjbcd92-w1YPR-0NivtwuzESH8op5kgB_LIlDPCRAW8ZQbyJVSiOGwFvj2vvW60/s1600-h/Dean+Wind+Speed+08-15"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGBz-YchC_1mir5wUg1q7e6mMcii1k8gqGaBy8d45F39obtrS_1NZEHgy8dw49tAk_sowXrA8G4oWO5Kjbcd92-w1YPR-0NivtwuzESH8op5kgB_LIlDPCRAW8ZQbyJVSiOGwFvj2vvW60/s400/Dean+Wind+Speed+08-15" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5098989074285134642" /></a>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-52370913310269554082007-08-15T10:56:00.000-07:002007-08-15T10:57:26.436-07:00ErinHere is Erin's info:<br /><br /><blockquote>100 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007<br /><br />...ERIN HEADING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM<br />FREEPORT SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL<br />STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE<br />NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF<br />MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.<br /><br />FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE<br />INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED<br />BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.<br /><br />AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS<br />ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT<br />210 MILES...340 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415<br />KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGES<br />SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER COULD BE REFORMING A LITTLE BIT TO THE<br />NORTH...WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS<br />CONFIRMED...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED<br />NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY. <br /><br />ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...<br />AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON<br />THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR<br />MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.<br /><br />TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM<br />TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE<br />ALREADY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.<br /><br />ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.</blockquote><br />I feel sorry for the folks in Texas because the last thing they need is more rain.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-62215198583101788272007-08-14T22:07:00.001-07:002007-08-14T22:15:19.422-07:00DeanI'm a little late on this, but I thought Tropical Depression 4 would turn into Tropical Storm Dean so I waited. Dean is the first classic African wave storm to develop It certainly won't be the last.<br /><br /><blockquote>NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007<br />1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007<br /><br />...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...<br /><br />INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF<br />DEAN. <br /><br />AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS<br />LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295<br />MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.<br /><br />DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS<br />GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER<br />GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.<br /><br />TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM<br />FROM THE CENTER.<br /><br />ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.</blockquote><br /><br />Dean should reach hurricane strength in a day or two. The storm track will be interesting to see. Cuba could be impacted greatly.<br /><br />Meanwhile TD #5 has popped up in the Gulf. Should just make tropical storm strength before hitting Texas.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-4975723607265874792007-08-10T09:57:00.000-07:002007-08-10T10:04:32.693-07:00Eastern Pacific UpdateThis is a report card on The Typhoon Times forecast for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. To date we have had 9 total storms with two hurricanes (including Flossie which just became a minimal hurricane.) <br /><br />I predicted 21 named storms in the Eastern Pacific with 8 of those storms becoming hurricanes.<br /><br />Almost half-way there, and there is still quite some time to go.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-11737022152011986842007-08-10T09:53:00.000-07:002007-08-10T09:57:24.495-07:00Moving The Goalpost, Sort OfSeem like the folks at the NOAA are getting a little antsy about the quiet Caribbean....but only a little: <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/09/hurricanes.outlook.ap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories">Forecasters: Fewer hurricanes for '07</a><br /><br /><blockquote>Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.<br /><br />The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.<br /><br />Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.<br /><br />Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.</blockquote><br />Was this "revision" really necessary? If you forecast 17 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes in May, and we only get 16 and 9 isn't that still a successful forecast? I'd say damn successful.<br /><br />I'm gonna stick to <a href="http://typhoontimes.blogspot.com/2007/04/bold-prediction.html">my prediction</a> (made in April) of 19 and 8. To change now would be a little gutless.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-20881328620865451652007-08-02T13:55:00.000-07:002007-08-02T14:48:42.187-07:00TS Chantal (2007) In Historical PerspectiveI decided to look at the other storms in the storm record that had a similar genesis point to tropical storm Chantal since 1930. It proves very interesting as it further reinforces the idea that serious undercounting of North Atlantic tropical storm in the pre-satellite era is endemic. I decided to look at all storms that had their genesis in the box bordered by the lines, 40 degrees north, 30 degrees north, 60 degrees west, and 70 degrees west (roughly this box brackets the island of Bermuda.) I've broken it down by decade below:<br /><br />1930's:<br /><br />1938, Tropical Storm #6, 40kts<br /><br />1940's:<br /><br />1942, Hurricane #3, 94kts<br />1942, Tropical Storm #5, 45kts<br />1942, Tropical Storm #6, 45kts<br />1943, Tropical Storm #7, 50kts<br /><br />1950's:<br /><br />1957, Hurricane Frieda, 70kts<br /><br />1960's<br /><br />1964, Tropical Storm, 45kts<br /><br />1970's<br /><br />1971, Hurricane #2, 70kts<br />1972, Hurricane Betty, 90kts<br />1973, Hurricane Fran, 70kts<br />1974, Subtropical #3, 45kts<br />1976, Hurricane Candice, 80kts<br /><br />1980's<br /><br />1981, Tropical Storm Bret, 60kts<br />1981, Tropical Storm Condy, 50kts<br />1983, Hurricane Chantal, 65kts<br />1984, Subtropical #1, 50kts<br />1984 Tropical Storm Cesar, 50 kts<br /><br />1990's<br /><br />1997, Hurricane Bill, 65kts<br />1998, Hurricane Karl, 90kts<br /><br />2000's<br /><br />2001, Hurricane Karen, 70kts<br />2003, Tropical Storm Ana, 45kts<br />2004, Tropical Storm Nicole, 45kts<br />2007, Tropical Storm Chantal, 45kts<br /><br />Average number of storms per year in each decade:<br /><br />Pre-satellite era<br /><br />1930's: 0.1<br />1940's: 0.4<br />1950's: 0.1<br />1960's: 0.1<br /><br />Satellite era:<br /><br />1970's: 0.5<br />1980's: 0.6<br />1990's: 0.2<br />2000's: 0.5<br /><br />For entire pre-satellite era 1930-1969: 0.175<br />For entire satellite era 1970-2007: 0.447<br /><br />It should also be noted that four of the seven total storms found in the pre-satellite era were found at a time when the U.S. military had a submarine and air presence at Bermuda engaged in active wartime patrolling during the Second World War.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-71110014230259605432007-07-31T10:35:00.000-07:002008-12-09T09:24:15.096-08:00Chantal<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCFbNf2muef3GDAklH-gJBI9WeOwnU1ZQagLzaPpTeDyrjnfoFDCfOM5CrLHF45s8ADFeJwuXQiFSBaCW-3DoA5B57kwavIcg_z4331ZOslaEpnoMkUP_HxchNxQ7psktw42zTf_t6Oc1u/s1600-h/143534W_sm.gif"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCFbNf2muef3GDAklH-gJBI9WeOwnU1ZQagLzaPpTeDyrjnfoFDCfOM5CrLHF45s8ADFeJwuXQiFSBaCW-3DoA5B57kwavIcg_z4331ZOslaEpnoMkUP_HxchNxQ7psktw42zTf_t6Oc1u/s400/143534W_sm.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5093416740765631090" /></a><br /><blockquote>VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS<br />MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN<br />SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE<br />DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL<br />CENTER ON SATELLITE. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED<br />BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL<br />INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY<br />MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A<br />TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED.</blockquote><br /><br /><blockquote>FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS<br /><br />INITIAL 31/1500Z 40.2N 62.7W 45 KT<br /> 12HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 59.7W 45 KT<br /> 24HR VT 01/1200Z 47.0N 52.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL<br /> 36HR VT 02/0000Z 51.2N 44.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL<br /> 48HR VT 02/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL<br /> 72HR VT 03/1200Z 60.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL<br /> 96HR VT 04/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL<br />120HR VT 05/1200Z 64.5N 12.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL</blockquote>Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-78903426671411140742007-07-31T10:30:00.000-07:002007-07-31T10:34:08.185-07:00It Is Worse Than Even *I* ThoughtThe Holland and Webster paper is <a href="http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/philtrans_a/Holland%20and%20Webster%201.pdf">now available</a> and it is a doozy.<br /><br />I've been having a discussion on another site with a true believer where the following exchange has taken place.<br /><br /><blockquote>“While there are limitations to the data set, this is addressed in the article”</blockquote><br />To which I responded:<br /><br /><blockquote>No it isn’t. This is what the paper says:<br /><br /><blockquote>We use the ‘best track’ tropical cyclone database from the National Hurricane Center (Jarvinan et al. 1984). The only changes to the dataset data have been to include the intensity corrections recommended by Landsea (1993).</blockquote><br />Then when they get to addressing Landsea’s contention about undercounting of Mid-Atlantic storms they say the following:<br /><br /><blockquote>Our conclusion is that the number of earlier missed storms most likely lies between 1 and 3 per year prior to 1900, less than 2 in the early nineteenth century and dropping off to essentially zero by 1960. The conclusion by Landsea (2007) of much higher numbers of missing storms is considered to be based on a false premise of an assumed constancy of landfalling storms ratio (Mann et al. submitted a,b; Holland in press).</blockquote><br />So they “refute” the contention by referring to non-published material (some of it written BY THEMSELVES) that no one can check in any way shape or form. (Although you will notice, even though they claim they accept some problems in the data set they do not alter it an iota. The undercounting is ignored by their data set even after they acknowledge it.)<br /><br />How is that acceptable? How did you find that convincing since you had no way of checking it at all?<br /><br />(Although I’m intrigued at what this new and hitherto never discovered mechanism that makes current hurricanes LESS likely to strike land compared to storms in the past will prove to be. I think they might start having an Ockham’s Razor problem soon.)</blockquote><br /><br />I can't help but feel a sense of deja vu when I deal with this stuff. As I'm sitting here speculating about the natural mechanism that will cause more North Atlantic hurricanes to form while at the same time decreasing their landfalling incidence, I cannot help but think I've been here before.<br /><br />And then it hit me. I wrote this back in <a href="http://iconicmidwest.blogspot.com/2005/09/blaming-tiny-dwarf.html">September of 2005</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote>This brings me to the point of postulating unknown forces to back up your theory. A good rule of thumb is never subscribe to any theory that relies on such a rhetorical device.</blockquote><br /><br />So, in order for these folks to hold onto their pet theory of AGW fueling increasing numbers of more intense hurricanes, they have to postulate a brand new mechanism that keep present day hurricanes from hitting, let's say, Florida, where hurricanes 50 years ago would have rudely barged right into it. We will keep the sheer ridiculous nature of the claim to one side for the moment. It must be admitted that these researchers are taking an approach to science that is positively Ptolemaic in its scope. Just like the followers of Ptolemey they pile complexity upon complexity in order to keep their vision afloat. As each new inconsistency is brought forward a new previously unknown mechanism is postulated as the "answer."<br /><br />The end result is a hybrid monster of a theory which lacks for nothing but coherence and persuasiveness.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8228226663515181670.post-10306822695881491452007-07-29T20:38:00.000-07:002007-07-29T20:39:23.625-07:00More BS Is BrewingYou can always tell when folks are selling bullshit as science because they feel the need to run everything like a public relations campaign. Which begs the question: What kind of snake oil are they selling?<br /><br />First the story from Reuters: <a href="http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2007-07-30T003742Z_01_N29329627_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-HURRICANES.xml&amp;pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage2">Study blames climate change for hurricanes</a><br /><br /><br /><blockquote>The number of Atlantic hurricanes in an average season has doubled in the last century due in part to warmer seas and changing wind patterns caused by global warming, according to a study released on Sunday.<br /><br />Hurricane researchers have debated for years whether climate change caused by greenhouse gases from cars, factories and other human activity is resulting in more, and more intense, tropical storms and hurricanes.<br /><br />The new study, published online in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, said the increased numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes in the last 100 years is closely related to a 1.3-degree Fahrenheit rise in sea surface temperatures.<br /><br />The influential U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in a report this year warning that humans contribute to global warming, said it was "more likely than not" that people also contribute to a trend of increasingly intense hurricanes.<br /><br />In the new study, conducted by Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology, researchers found three periods since 1900 when the average number of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes increased sharply, and then leveled off and remained steady.<br /><br />From 1900 to 1930, Atlantic hurricane seasons saw six storms on average, with four hurricanes and two tropical storms. From 1930 to 1940, the annual average rose to ten, including five hurricanes.</blockquote>Gee, I'd like to see a study that can do that despite all the myriad problems with comparing satellite collected data from the space age with the spotty reports of the early 20th century. (See my take <a href="http://iconicmidwest.blogspot.com/2007/02/what-have-i-been-doing.html">here</a>, Chris Landsea's that I blogged about <a href="http://iconicmidwest.blogspot.com/2007/05/vindication.html">here</a>.) Not to mention that the study seemingly contradicts the latest findings in the field which predict warming <em>decreasing</em> the number and intensities of tropical storms. (Blogged about <a href="http://iconicmidwest.blogspot.com/2007/04/gore-wrong-again.html">here</a>.)<br /><br />Of course, maybe they came up with something actually new and they did not (as I suspect) repackage the same old tired garbage that the media loves to print so much. And hey! The Reuters article said it was published online. I've looked for an hour and I cannot find it. If the article is available on the web why wouldn't Reuters have a link to it? Oh, that is because it hasn't actually been published yet. That happens tomorrow.<br /><br />So what source of information is this "free and independent journalist" writing from?<br /><br />Oh, I found that most important piece of present day "science"...<a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-07/ncfa-foa_1072507.php">the press release</a>. Plus it's handy helper, the <a href="http://www.ucar.edu/news/journalists.jsp">guide for idiot journalists</a>. (So you can hold their hands when you tell them what to print.) But the actual study itself? Who needs it?!. Ah science.<br /><br />Of course there is a name for all of this behavior. It is called "stealing a march." By placing sympathetic (with emphasis on the pathetic) stories in the media before anyone else can gainsay the report by doing crazy things like actually reading and studying it, you can get the message you want out in the press. And if it generates a few more press clippings that you can append to your next grant proposal, well who's to say anything against it?? That your actual work may be not worth the paper it is printed on is beside the point. You have what you want: another line on the CV, another hysterical item in the press, and another restful night because you know you will get your version of the story out and never have to deal with criticism from the other side until its too late.<br /><br />It is bullshit, and unethical bullshit to boot.Rich Hortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15561931187909269006noreply@blogger.com0