Report Card: Typhoon Times 2007 Forecasts

So how did I do in 2007? (I'm sure the whole world is wanting to know!) Well, not too bad. In some ways worse than the Colorado State forecast, in some ways better.

The data (Atlantic & East Pacific):

Tropical Storms (Atlantic):

Typhoon Times: 19
Colorado State: 17
Actual: 17

Hurricanes (Atlantic):

Typhoon Times: 8
Colorado State: 9
Actual: 5

Tropical Storms (East Pacific):

Typhoon Times: 21
Actual: 19

Hurricanes (East Pacific):

Typhoon Times: 8
Actual: 4

Could hae been worse, could have been better. I'd give myself a solid "C".

Gabrielle

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9
MPH...14 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TOMORROW...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COAST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

Henriette (Eastern Pacific)

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 395
MILES...640 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE AWAY FROM THE
MAINLAND OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

Felix: Update #1

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
75 KM...NORTH OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELIX COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

Felix

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 455
MILES...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
600 MILES...965 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

TD #6

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

Dean The Sequel

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

Yet More Rank Stupidity

It had to be coming.

No one storm says anything about climate change; but nevertheless, climate change may affect weather in the aggregate. ... bearing in mind the scientific expectation that global warming ought to intensify the average hurricane (by how much remains hotly disputed). How does Dean fit into that ongoing scientific argument? Well, first of all, Dean now takes its rank among the top ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes. If you look at that list you’ll see that six of the strongest (Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Mitch, Dean, and Ivan) have been in the past ten years. That’s not the kind of statistic that’s easy to overlook. According to these data we are getting stronger storms in the Atlantic basin now than we ever have before.

Bullshit. Complete intellectually dishonest bullshit.

The truth is we only have complete data on intensity from the late 1960's. For example, look at the data for 1960. Of the seven tropical storms that season only three have recorded pressure readings, and one of those seems suspect to me. (Category 5 hurricane Ethel only had a pressure of 981mb?)

Or check out 1950, where only three of 13 storms have pressure readings. This includes no pressure reading on the massive category 5 storm Dog.




How do we know this wasn't one of the strongest storms ever? We don't. Our data isn't good enough.

Unfortunately, this type of unscientific demagoguery is par for the course with the GW hysteria crowd.