Wednesday, March 28, 2007

I Predict The "Prediction" Won't Actually Predict Anything

Here is a non-stop laugh riot courtesy of Reuters: Strong hurricanes to hit U.S. Gulf in 07: AccuWeather

The U.S. Gulf Coast, which is still rebuilding almost two years after Hurricane Katrina, faces a renewed threat of powerful storms this year, private forecaster AccuWeather said on Tuesday.

Not a prediction. The Gulf faces hurricane "threats" every single year.

Using this standard, I predict the sun will rise tomorrow, California will face earthquake "threats" this year, and the Arizona Cardinals have a chance for an undefeated season.

I am the god of prognostication.

After a quiet hurricane season last year, Florida and other Gulf Coast states likely will be hit with fewer storms than during the active 2005 season, which spawned the massive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, AccuWeather said.

But the storms forecast for the region will pack a punch.

"We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but the intensity of the storms we do get will be of major concern," Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster for, said in a statement.

Oh, we may not get the same number of storms this season we did in the most active season in at least 150 years? Way to go out on a limb there.

Using this standard, I predict that it may be difficult for Newt Gingrich to gather 65% of the vote in the 2008 Presidential election, and Yadier Molina just might not bat .400 this season.

The tea leaves speak to me.

British forecasting group Tropical Storm Risk this month also predicted an active storm season. It forecast four "intense" hurricanes during the 2007 season, which runs from June through November.

An actual prediction! (Although not made by the folks the story is supposed to be about.) Yes, it is a prediction for an average season, as from 1995-2006 we have averaged 3.9 Cat 3 or higher storms per year.

Using this standard, I predict that male babies born in the US in 2007 will grow up to an average height of 5-10 to 5-11.

Tremble at the sight of my crystal ball.

Bastardi also predicted the U.S. Northeast would likely be a target for strong storms for the next 10 years.

Once again, not a prediction.

Using this standard, I predict that people walking around urban areas with hundred dollar bills falling out of their pockets will likely be the victim of crime eventually.

I am the eyes of Nostradamus. All your ways are known to me.

Cross posted at The Iconic Midwest

No comments: