Barbara

It looks likely that Barbara will NOT be the first eastern pacific hurricane of the season:

QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT
BEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL 31/2100Z 12.9N 95.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 94.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 94.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 94.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 95.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 95.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND

This just underscores how quickly these storm models can fall apart.