Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Tropical Cyclone Gonu

Here is an unusual one as a tropical cyclone threatens Oman and Iran:

050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 02A HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGIC RATE
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A SMALL RAGGED EYE. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
INDIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR TAU 24, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD TURN OF THE SYSTEM. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN IRAN AFTER TAU 36.


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