Barbara

It looks likely that Barbara will NOT be the first eastern pacific hurricane of the season:

QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT
BEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL 31/2100Z 12.9N 95.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 94.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 94.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 94.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 95.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 95.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND

This just underscores how quickly these storm models can fall apart.

2007 Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Forecast (May 31st)

Here is the final Typhoon Times forecast for the 2007 Hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

Atlantic:

Named Storms: 19
Hurricanes: 8

Eastern Pacific:

Named Storms: 21
Hurricanes: 8

This forecast is the same as the Typhoon Times' early April prediction.

While the forecast will no longer be revised, as it makes no sense to change the "forecast" for the season while said season is on-going, we will be doing monthly round-ups to measure how the forecast is fairing.

We will also compare it to other forecasts for the season, such as the one furnished by Colorado State (which was also unchanged from their April forecast):

The Colorado State University hurricane research team renewed its forecast for an "above average" 2007 Atlantic storm season on Thursday and predicted 17 tropical storms, with nine growing to hurricane strength.

Eastern Pacific: Alvin and Barbara

On Alvin:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.6N 115.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

On Barbara:

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLIES ABOUT TO IMPINGE ON THE CIRCULATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FOR THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
BARBARA WILL BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE GULF TROUGH OR
SLIDE WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND
IT. IN THE FORMER CAMP ARE THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHILE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.
INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT BETWEEN
THESE TWO OPTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ADMITTEDLY LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE WESTWARD SCENARIO.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AS WELL. THE MID-LEVEL
NORTHERLIES APPROACHING THE CYCLONE WILL ADVECT SOME DRY AIR INTO
THE CIRCULATION AND INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...
BARBARA COULD STRUGGLE IN THE SHORT RUN. OVERALL...HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH VERY WARM WATERS
AND GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.2N 97.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 13.9N 97.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 13.4N 97.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 13.0N 97.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 13.0N 96.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 96.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 97.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 70 KT

Barbara should be the more interesting to watch. We shall see how well the forecast predicts this storm, as they think it will be a Cat 1 hurricane on June 2nd.

Substituting Dogma For Science Is A Really Bad Idea: Example #447

From Reuters (via CNN): Study: Killer hurricanes thrived in cooler seas

Hurricanes over the past 5,000 years appear to have been controlled more by El Nino and an African monsoon than warm sea surface temperatures, such as those caused by global warming, researchers said Wednesday.

The study, published in the journal Nature, adds to the debate on whether seas warmed by greenhouse gas emissions lead to more hurricanes, such as those that bashed the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Some researchers say warmer seas appear to have contributed to more intense hurricanes, while others disagree. The U.N. International Panel on Climate Change said this year it was more likely than not that humans contribute to a trend of increasingly intense hurricanes.[emphasis added]

This simply underscores how the claims of the IPCC on hurricanes were in no way based upon the actual state of the scientific evidence. To claim the IPCC report represent the "consensus" of scientific opinion is so far from the truth it isn't even worthy of dicsussion.

The sad fact is the politicians of the IPCC needed to make these sorts of false hurricane claims to bolster their political contentions that the world was in mortal danger. It was a scare tactic, and a knowingly cynical one at that.

Frequent strong hurricanes thrived in the Western Atlantic during times of weak El Ninos, or warming of surface waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and strong West African monsoons even when local seas were cooler than now, the study said.

"Tropical sea surface temperatures as warm as at present are apparently not a requisite condition for increased intense hurricane activity," Jeffrey Donnelly, the lead author and researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said in the study.

Intense hurricanes made landfall during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a period of cooling that occurred approximately from the 14th to mid-19th centuries, he said.

...

Intense hurricanes hit when local sea surface temperatures were warm or cool. In fact, "the Caribbean experienced a relatively active interval of intense hurricanes for more than a millennium when local sea surface temperatures were on average cooler than modern," the study said.

I'm not particularly surprised at these findings. Look at the picture of a cyclonic storm below:



This is a picture of what is known as a "polar low." This photograph is of a storm just off of the coast of Iceland. Polar lows don't just look like tropical hurricanes, they have been known to reach hurricane force winds as well. These storms take place in the coldest waters on earth, so it has always seemed obvious that the warmth of the waters couldn't have been the determining factor on the development of cyclonic storms generally speaking.

So the IPCC is not selling science when they speak of hurricanes, they are selling a morality tale. "See the big bad people make the water warmer by their greed. See the warm water create hurricanes. See the hurricanes destroy the big bad greedy people."

One might think that some media members might catch on to this overwhelmingly simplistic reasoning about such a massively complex scientific problem as hurricane genesis.

Unfortunately, the media loves a good morality tale more than they love science.

Cross Posted at The Iconic Midwest

More Hurricane Alarmism

I sort of wish the media would stop covering these stories since they seem incapable of understanding them correctly: Experts predict 'active' hurricane season

Story Highlights• Forecasters predict seven to 10 hurricanes this season
• Expert: Florida 4 times as likely to be hit, Texas twice as likely
• El Nino over, making way for more storms on East, Gulf coasts
• Last year, there were 10 named storms in the Atlantic

...

Government forecasters called for a busier than normal hurricane season Tuesday.

National Weather Service forecasters said they expect 13 to 17 tropical storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes.

OK, lets look at this. Since 1967 the percentage of tropical storms that have made landfall in Florida is a little over 13%. On average, also from 1967, 1.45 tropical storms make landfall in Florida every year. Since storms hit in full integers lets say, one or two a year.

Now, given the range of 13 to 17 tropical storms predicted, we would expect Florida landfalls in the 1.69 to 2.21 range, or one to three this year.

Sure it could be more or it could be less, but if you are in the media you are probably better off giving people an idea of what they can expect on average. Presenting it as if Floridians are facing a 400% greater risk is simply fear mongering.

Plus, the claim is simply false. For example, Florida has been hit by at least one tropical system in 16 of the last 17 hurricane seasons (or 94%). Given such a track record, saying that in this year they are 4 times as likely to be hit is simple nonsense.

Bitching In Unexpected Places?

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I found this interesting. From a statement from the National Hurricane Center:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.

Now, I read a lot of these statements and little asides are not exactly unknown, but there is something being implied here. It just sounds like there may be a squabble over money.

Cross posted at The Iconic Midwest.

Andrea, We Hardly Knew Ye

And that pretty much is the end of Andrea. It is too bad as Florida could have used the rainfall.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

DEEP CONVECTION IS DISAPPEARING QUICKLY AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. IT IS THEREFORE NO SURPRISE
THAT THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED AT 1000 FT BY THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE LESS THAN 40
KT. ANDREA IS DOWNGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT
MAXIMUM WINDS. A COMEBACK SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT

Early Season Storms Since 1967

Andrea is the ninth storm since 1967 to have an origin date earlier than June 1st.

The others:

1970: Hurricane Alma (70 knots)
1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha (40 knots)
1976: Subtropical Storm 1 (45 knots)
1978: Subtropical Storm 1 (40 knots)
1981: Tropical Storm Arlene (50 knots)
1992: Subtropical Storm 1 (45 knots)
1997: Subtropical Strom 54 (45 knots)
2003: Tropical Storm Ana (50 knots)

Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea

Say "Hello" to Andrea:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

First Rumblings Of The Pre-Season

Starting off with a non-tropical disturbance kind of eases us into the flow of things: Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.