Another storm in the north Indian Ocean.
Friday, June 29, 2007
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Watching Water Warm
Tropical Cyclone Gonu
Here is an unusual one as a tropical cyclone threatens Oman and Iran:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 02A HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGIC RATE
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A SMALL RAGGED EYE. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
INDIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR TAU 24, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD TURN OF THE SYSTEM. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN IRAN AFTER TAU 36.
Saturday, June 2, 2007
Tropical Depression Barry
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...SURFACE DATA AND INFORMATION FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS
BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAMPA BAY. THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DIMINISHED
TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WIND SHEAR. THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
Friday, June 1, 2007
Barry
All of that unsettled weather in the Gulf resulted in a tropical storm after all!
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.
INITIAL 01/2100Z 24.2N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
Florida is in such severe rainfall defecit, a storm like Barry will be quite welcome.
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