Friday, August 10, 2007

Moving The Goalpost, Sort Of

Seem like the folks at the NOAA are getting a little antsy about the quiet Caribbean....but only a little: Forecasters: Fewer hurricanes for '07

Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.

Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.

Was this "revision" really necessary? If you forecast 17 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes in May, and we only get 16 and 9 isn't that still a successful forecast? I'd say damn successful.

I'm gonna stick to my prediction (made in April) of 19 and 8. To change now would be a little gutless.

No comments: