Some Good News On Dean

Dean is a little less intense today.

1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.

When the eye of a hurricane increases in size it can often indicate a lessening of strength, at least in the short term. Dean has been a very compact, tightly wound storm up until now.

It should be noted that the official statement differs from the "discussion" statement I quoted above:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

This makes sense as you never want people to let up their guard, especially as the storm is about to slam into a populated area.